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LSU professor Dr. Loren Scott is renowned for his economic outlook reports on the Louisiana Economy. To many, Scott is “the Bible” for economic planners.

And guess what?

The recent report was not particularly favorable for Shreveport-Bossier. Actually, Caddo, Bossier, Webster, and Desoto parishes are in the Shreveport-Bossier Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).

Except for slight growth Shale, the number of jobs in Shreveport-Bossier MSA has been declining since 2008, losing 13,500 jobs.

This is the fourth largest MSA in the state based on non-farm employment. The top 3 MSAs are New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Lafayette.

Scott predicts that starting this year Shreveport-Bossier will begin two years of moderate growth. Job growth in this MSA should be 1300 this year and 1500 next year.

If achieved, this would only rank Shreveport-Bossier as the 5th fastest growing MSA in the state and the 4th in absolute jobs gained. The addition of Webster Parish to the MSA is part of the projected job growth.

Scott identifies several areas that will boost the local economy.

The first is an ongoing rebound in Haynesville Shale drilling, The completion of the CNG terminals in south Louisiana and the state’s extensive pipeline system are key factors.

Much like Baton Rouge and Lafayette, the high-tech sector is growing here. The establishment of CSRA and its growth is a good example. Another is the first tier II data center in Louisiana that is housed in the old Selbers Department store—Eatel/Venyu.

The Port is also a key economic engine. Benteler Steel opened in 2017, and it has recently expanded its operations with the rebound in drilling. Steel producer Ternium has added employees and has recently announced a $14.7 million dollar expansion.

Barksdale Air Force Base is a constant major employer with both military personnel and civilian employees. Gains in both areas are expected along with large on base construction projects. The now funded entrance from I-20 near the racetrack will further economic development in the area.

Shreveport-Bossier MSA has the highest concentration of durable good manufacturing in the state. This MSA area is more susceptible to national economics including recessions than the state’s other eight MSAs.

Closures that have hurt this area include AT&T, Beaird Industries, General Motors, Georgia Pacific plywood plant, Verizon call center and Capitol One Bank call center and branch closings.

Shreveport Bossier is the home of the state’s largest and most successful casino markers. The casinos and casino hotels are labor intensive, which is a positive and a negative.

Increased competition from the Indian casinos has tapped into the Dallas- Fort Worth market and hurt the local market. Over the last two years, this sector has lost over 1000 jobs from the 2014-2017.

This MSA will get a little extra boost from the state road lettings over 2018-19. Total letting will be $182.4 million, a $29.6 million increase over last year’s report.

Four of the bigger projects include: $24 million for LA531 overpass bridge replacement; a new $19 million rest area at Ida; $15.1 million to widen Swan Lake Road from I 20 to Flat River and $14.7 million to overlay I 20 from the Texas state line to near Monkhouse Drive.

Shreveport-Bossier has long been the health care center for the northern half of the state.

With the partnership of Ochsner Health Care System and LSU Health Shreveport, there will be expansion in the healthcare employment. Ochsner has announced that there will also be extensions of services and renovations of facilities.

Additionally, a health care provider is negotiating with the City of Bossier to purchase city-owned property in old downtown Bossier. The expansion of Medicare and Medicare has increased the pool of persons eligible for health care services.

Although not part of Scott’s report, as recent WalletHub study confirms much of Scott’s findings. The study ranked Shreveport second-to-last in the nation for economic growth this year—514 out of 515 cities that were scored. The breakdown of mid-sized cities listed Shreveport as dead last at 249.

WalletHub utilized 15 metrics. These included overall lowest income growth, population growth, working-age population growth, and job growth.

WalletHub is often criticized by economic development gurus. However, it ranked Shreveport number one out of 150 cities to start a business in 2015. And in 2016, Shreveport was ranked 18th.

Leaving all the numbers behind, its hard to find many in this area that are excited about job growth and the local economy. Many are concerned that the four parish MSA does not really reflect the Shreveport economy, since many of the jobs are added in Bossier, Webster, and Desoto parishes.

(This article was published in The Forum on Monday, November 5, 2018)

Yep—I am voting on a tax.

Actually a renewal.

And yes, you can tell your friends, email this column to the world and put out in social media.

On the Tuesday ballot—somewhere—is the Caddo Parish Commission’s Public Facilities and Recreation Renewal.

It’s a .83 millage. In “dollar speak” it will cost me about 50 cents a month.

Goodness, a good ole Snickers costs more than that. And in fact, it’s darned hard to find any vending machine that takes less than a buck. (Unless you consider the downtown parking meters).

This millage expires every 10 years. It funds 98% of parish parks operations—for over 30 years.

The parish operates and maintains 14 park sites throughout the parish.

Want a second confession?

Guess who has never visited a parish park?

I know shame on me, and rightly so!

I have just added to my “do before I die list” a visit to highly acclaimed Walter B. Jacobs Memorial Nature Park.

Parks are for people….and these parks are enjoyed by lotsa people. If you are a “numbers person” consider these:

• 17 park improvement projects completed;

• 129 special park events;

• 72 number of schools served by a nature park;

• 370 number of classes served by a nature park;

• 200 groups other than schools, served by nature park staff;

• 245 offsite speaking engagements, interpretive programs and special events;

• 175 naturalist calls for professional assistance;

• 27,505 visitors/outreach contacts – Walter B. Jacobs Park Staff.

Soo…mark it down. Settle supports a 50 cent tax. A whole half dollar, which is sometimes referred to as “the half”.

Speaking of which, when is the last time you have had one of those in your pocket?

On Wednesday mayoral candidate Steven Jackson announced his endorsement by the Working Families Party (WFP).

George Soros and his Open Society Foundation have financed the WFP.

The WFP is an outgrowth of the socialist New Party. The goal of this group is to push the Democratic party to the left.

The WFP of New York was first organized in 1998 by a coalition of labor unions, community organizations, and variety of advocacy groups.

The party’s website says is it “a growing progressive political organization that fights for an economy that works for all of us , and a democracy in which every voice matters.”

The announcement of the endorsement by w WFP spokesperson listed several reasons that are subject to considerable question.

Joe Dinkin is quoted in the press release as follows:

“As a Commissioner , Steven has stood up for good jobs and higher wages, immigrants’ rights and criminal justice reform.”

Jackson’s record as a commissioner is totally void of any of these stances. None of his Commission votes have dealt with these issues.

According to the release WFP candidates have won primaries in Chicago,, Milwaukee, Maryland, Connecticut, New York, West Virginia, Indiana, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.

Jackson touts his votes on the Commission dealing with the housing trust fund, the commissioner retirement , and the removal of the Confederate monument.

Needless to say Jackson’s press release did not deal with his 2 citations for driving a motor vehicle with an expired inspection sticker and lack of insurance.

The release did not mention his unethical vote to fund moneys to benefit his employer.

And neither did it deal with his ability to campaign during working hours for a federally funded employer.

Many question if Shreveport voters will be impressed by the endorsement of a basically unknown minor political party. Especially a party funded by George Soros.

There is an old saying that desperate political candidates do desperate things.

This could be said of Jackson’s announcement, which of all days was made on Halloween.

Whether if will be “treat” or a “trick” for Jackson’s campaign is a question to be decided.

(This article was published in The Inquisitor on Friday, November 2, 2018)

All candidates on the November 6 ballot were required to submit campaign financial reports to the Louisiana Ethics Administration on Monday of this week.

 

The reporting period is from September 28 through October 17.  These reports give major insight into the status of campaigns.

 

This is especially true in the Shreveport mayor’s race.

 

Incumbent Ollie Tyler raised a total of $11,200 in cash contributions. She had in-kind contributions of $1116, for a total of $12,316. Her campaign funds on hand on October 17 were $80,121.

 

Hard charging challenger Adrian Perkins raised $43.065 in cash contributions. He had in-kind donations of $482.   The total contributions were $43,547. He had $68,879 campaign funds on hand on October 17.

 

Tyler has one max contribution of $2500 from Career Adventures. Her staff assistant Arlena Acree owns this company. Acree and her husband have contributed personally $3500.

 

Tyler had one contribution of $2000 from James Frazier of Little Rock, Ark. Her $1000 contributors from Shreveport were Chris Kinsey, Delinquent Recovery Associates, John George and McElroy Metals. Ronald Green of Houston  Texas also contributed $1000.

 

Perkins had max contributions of $2500 from Airline Car Rental, Robert Ewing, Daryl Fultz, J Weinland Group Benefits, Kyle Payne, Unik Enterprises (Bossier City), and Tina Williams.

 

Alexander Kennedy and Delores Lavigne contributed $2000 . Jan Teekel gave $1250.

 

Contributors of $1000 were Megan Campbell, Eric Carbone, La Framing Services (Bossier City), M&N Concrete Services, Andrew Offit (West Newton, Mass.), Jeffery Oliver (Frederick, MD.), Franklin Roemer and BW Teekell (total of $2000).

 

Perkins outraised Tyler in the reporting period that ended in  September by $11,681 (cash and in kind). In the latest reporting (ending October 17) his $31,519.

 totals were $31,211 more than Tyler.

 

Total contributions, both cash and in-kind, for Tyler this year are $132,639 through October 17.

 

Perkin’s total contributions, both cash and in-kind, from January 1, 2018 were $175,551.   This is almost $43 grand more than Tyler–$42,912.

 

Tyler started the year with funds on hand of $33,386. Perkins had $0 campaign dollars on January 1, 2018.

 

Steven Jackson reported cash on hand on October 17 of $28,625. Of this amount

$10,500 were loans by him to his campaign. Thus his balance of contributions from third parties was $18,125.

 

At the end of the October 17 reporting period Lee O. Savage had funds on hand of $3437.

 

Jim Taliaferro’s funds on hand were $2289.

 

The next reports for all candidates, whether in the run-off election or not, are due
October 31.

(This article will be published in The Inquisitor on Friday, November 2, 2018)

Yep, its true.

The operating budget that Shreveport Mayor Ollie Tyler presented to the Shreveport City Council last week proposes more expenditures than estimated revenues.

Technically the budget will not be in the red.

Tyler intends to spend over $5.9 million of the anticipated December 31 operating reserves. That’s almost 60% of the expected reserves.

Is that like raiding the family piggy bank to pay the electric bill?

Or robbing the children’s college fund to buy groceries?

Maybe like cashing in life insurance or raiding retirement plans to pay the car note?

But Shreveport Chief Administrative Officer Brian Crawford says it all Ok.

“The Shreveport General Fund Budget is $222,270,400, with revenue, of which revenue in accordance with GASB practices includes the current year fund balance of $8,285,000 (from the end of the previous year) as listed in the “Actual Revenue-Other” portion of the City of Shreveport General Government Budget (line item 98.983031) is included each year as a non-appropriated and available revenue for expenditures.”

In English, that means using hoped for left over money from this year (2018) to pay for next year (2019) operating expenses.

The Council was treated to a long Power Point executive summary at the October 23 meeting.

In prior years the Tyler administration had favored Council members with a printed summary to allow them to easily follow the presentation. But not this year. Needless to say the Council was not happy.

Both Tyler and Crawford had their serious “game faces” on during the meeting. Both were very defensive when budget questions were asked by Council members. No doubt the “underwater” proposed budget was the reason for their dour moods.

Actually its not Tyler’s first rodeo riding the operating reserves to pay operating expenses. She went down this yellow brick road more than once when she was the Caddo School Superintendent.

Tyler’s re-election campaign touts her “proven experience, proven leadership, proven integrity.”

Voters who are concerned with crime, water bills, and now a deficit budget are beginning to question these “accomplishments” in deciding if she should return for a second term as mayor.

The Shreveport City Charter requires that the 2019 operating budget be adopted on December 11, 2018.

 

Mayor Tyler introduced her proposed budget at the Council meeting  on Tuesday.  The Council was briefed with an Executive Summary of the budget consisting of a Power Point presentation featuring 43 slides.

 

The 543 page budget is accompanied by an 11 page introduction by Mayor Tyler.

 

The 2019 proposed operating budget, including debt service, is 12.4 million dollars over the 2018 budget of $488 million dollars.    It is projected to have expenditures of $4.9 million dollars over revenues.

 

The difference in expenses over income will be funded by utilizing  almost 60%  of the estimated fund balance at  December 31of this year.

 

The projected General Fund revenues for next year are 2.56% more than 2018.

 

The projected increase is based upon an assumption that sales tax revenue and EMS service income will increase.  (Reimbursement for emergency services of $12 million is expected since Medicare and Medicaid will now pay for these services.)

 

 

These projections will leave an estimated operating reserve as of  December 31, 2019 of $3.32 million dollars.  The projected reserve fund balance is $8.25 million as of December 31 of this year.

 

Primary city services are supported by the General Fund. This includes police, fire, public works and parks and recreation. The General Fund derives its revenues from sales taxes and user taxes.

 

The Shreveport Police Department has 3% budget increase as does parks and recreation. The Shreveport Fire Department has a 4% increase.

 

The present Counsel is well experienced in the city budgetary process.  Jeff Everson, Oliver Jenkins and Mike Corbin will be reviewing their 7th and last, operating budgets.  All three are termed out and their service will end in December.

 

The other Council members – – Willie Bradford, Jerry Bowman, James Flurry and Stephanie Lynch approved the operating budgets for the last three years.

 

A public hearing on the budget is set for Tuesday November 13. Thereafter the Council will have detailed departmental review budget sessions on Friday,  November 16 and Saturday,  November 17.

 

It is anticipated that the Council will amend this budget to remove any anticipated deficit.  Approval of the city operating budget is one of the most important council responsibilities.

There’s an old saying in politics that money does not vote. But money gets votes.

 

Shreveport Mayor Ollie Tyler’s recently released campaign finance reports show that her candidacy is not doing well, to put it mildly.

 

Couple that with a recently released poll, and its no surprise that Tyler has gone underground in the sense of ducking public forums –or any venue in which she can be asked questions.

 

Tyler attended the first televised mayoral forum last week. She ducked the next two, saying she had city business.

 

Evidently she considers getting a political endorsement from a local black church last Wednesday night, rather than attend a forum, to be “city business.” As they say, there is business, and then, there is BUSINESS!

 

Tyler’s fundraising during the March 1 to September 27 reporting period was lackluster at best. Virtually all political observers say the dollars raised by Tyler were dismal, if not pathetic.

 

Adrian Perkin’s campaign collected $17 grand more than Tyler. And over 50% of Tyler’s money came from Shreveport contractors and vendors.

 

A Verne Kennedy poll confirmed what most politicos have believed since the qualifying ended. That Tyler can easily beat either of the two Republicans in the race—Lee O. Savage and Jim Taliaferro.

 

More importantly, the poll validated what many have believed from day one about Tyler’s re-election chances. Simply put, she is in trouble if a Democrat is in the run-off election with her.

 

The poll’s key question was “If an election were held today, would you want to see Ollie Tyler re-elected mayor, or would you prefer to that someone else be given the chance to do better?”

 

The answers were 106 (35%) to re-elect Tyler, 137 (46%) to elect someone new, and 57 (19%) not sure.

 

The analysis of these numbers is critical.

 

“ With 99% recognition only 35% want Tyler re-elected meaning 65% do not or have strong hesitation voting to re-elect her. MRI has used this re-elect questions in over 1,000 surveys. Incumbents with over 50% re-elect are usually re-elected. Those with between 40% and 49% have no more than a 50% chance of re-election depending on the quality of the opponent had his or her campaign. Incumbents with less than 40% re-elect are generally defeated. AT 35% RE-ELECT TYLER HAS A VERY LOW PROBABLY OF RE-ELECTION IF AGAINST A DEMOCRAT IN THE RUN-OFF.”

 

The Kennedy poll was conducted between October 16-18, with 400 calls to cell phones (222) and land lines (178).

 

Those called were 202 African-Americans, 194 white and 4 others.

 

The male-female breakdown was 168-232.

 

The ages of the those polled average 20% between 5 age brackets starting from 18-34 to a group over 65.

 

Although the pool size (400) was small, it represented the Shreveport voter profile by ethnicity, gender, age, and phone access.

 

Needless to say, the poll has two major effects.

 

No doubt it will fuel the Perkin’s campaign which has steadily been building wide spread support throughout the city.

 

Likewise , the poll conclusions should dampen the Tyler campaign which seemingly stalled out in the last few weeks.

 

And for the Republicans, it should be a nail in the coffin, — for both challengers.

(This article was published in The Inquisitor on Thursday, October 25, 2018)

Yes, it IS big news. Actually, BIG BIG news.

On January 1 of this year, Adrian Perkins was a virtual unknown to Shreveport voters. He was still a student at Harvard Law School.

Shreveport Mayor Ollie Tyler had the highest name recognition of any elected official north of Baton Rouge. And she was a 3 year incumbent of the state’s third largest city.

Soo…how did all this translate into campaign contributions, which are the mother’s milk of politics?

Not good for the home team, as in incumbent. And fantastic for the upstart challenger who has tirelessly campaigned.

Perkins raised $17 grand more than Tyler in the March 1 to September 27 reporting period. And NO big bucks to Perkins from city contractors and vendors, who gave more than 50% of the money Tyler raised.

These two outclassed Taliaferro ($31,415 cash and $6,066 in kind), Jackson ($25,306 cash and $4,700 in kind) and Savage ($9,855 cash, $6,297 in kind and paraphernalia sales $2,655).

As far as cash on hand, Tyler held the upper hand at $93,557. She had retained funds of $33,386 at the start of the current reporting period. Perkins had $71,966 at the end of the reporting period.

The totals for the others fall off substantially. Jackson’s funds on hand were $23,139, followed by Taliaferro at $6956 and Savage at $3605.

Savage had loaned his campaign $21,246. Other loans include Jackson of $5500 to his effort and Taliaferro $600 to his campaign.

As far as heavy hitter donors, Perkins had 20 contributions of $2500 (the max) compared to Tyler’s 23. Perkins had more contributors (39) in the $1000—$2499 range than Tyler (27).

Perkins had a total of 216 contributors and Tyler had 158 contributors. Of these Perkins had 20 outside of Shreveport Bossier in Louisiana and 52 from out of state. Tyler had 23 donors outside Shreveport Bossier in the state and 9 out of state donors.

In state contributions for Perkins outside of Shreveport Bossier were $16,653 compared to Tyler’s donations of $17,620. Their out of state contributions were almost equal. Perkins raised $14,590 and Tyler had $16,000.

Money does not vote, but money does affect many votes. More importantly, the reports often influence additional contributions by many political observers who try to pick a campaign “winner.”

NOTE: This author has not contributed to any mayoral campaign. He not/has not been on any candidate campaign committees nor does he appears on any campaign finance reports. He has not endorsed any mayoral candidate.

Yes, there have been many, many mayoral forums. Like 10, or maybe 11. And all the mayoral candidates are suffering from “forum fatigue.”

But only 3 were televised. Tuesday at LSUS, Wednesday at Centenary College and Thursday at Southern University Shreveport.

These forums allowed every voter in Shreveport to see the candidates, or almost all of them, answer live questions in a well-structured forum. The recorded forums are online with KTAL, KSLA and KTBS and can be viewed any time between now and the November 6 primary.

The Greater Shreveport Chamber of Commerce provided great venues, moderators, and subject topics.

Mayor Ollie Tyler made the first forum (LSUS) along with the other serious candidates—Adrian Perkins, Jim Taliaferro, Lee O. Savage, and Steven Jackson. Tyler skipped the next two—saying she had “city business” to attend to. Perkins, Taliaferro, Savage and Jackson were in attendance at all times.

On Wednesday (October 17), Tyler went to a local church to get endorsement from the minister. One can only wonder why this endorsement event could not have been on a Wednesday night that did not conflict with a televised forum.

Since Tyler is the mayor, its logical to assume that she can schedule any city business in working hours. Or at least not to overlap with an hour long forum starting at 6:30 pm.

No matter what excuses she may tender, her actions smell to high heaven of “politics”, in the bad sense of the word. This is not like the 2014 run off election when she had a commanding lead and declined forum invitations.

There is little doubt that Tyler will be in a run-off election, probably with Perkins. But does she owe the citizen voters of Shreveport a duty to appear and answer questions?

In her 3 plus years as mayor she has been very, very reluctant to allow “live” interviews. Now that she is a candidate in a hotly contested election, and she decides to go underground.

There is a time for “politics” and a time for statesmanship. At this juncture in this election, Tyler should have taken the high road and participated in all three forums.

She constantly reminds the public of all the accomplishments of her administration. She publishes annual reports of everything, everybody does at city hall that is positive.

So why not show up and answer “live” questions. There is nothing positive about Tyler’s ducking the show, with less than 3 weeks until the vote.

It sounds simple. And in theory it is.

But theory and reality rarely match up. Such is the case with the Lake Street railroad crossing.

The goal is to re-open the railroad crossing between Spring Street and the Clyde Fant Parkway. This section has been blocked off since January 2015.

The ordinance authorizing the temporary closing expired on January 5, 2017. Now, some 22 months after the expiration date, Lake Street is still closed at the railroad tracks.

The local players affected by the closed crossing are on the “open back up” train.

These include Sci-port Discovery Center on the parkway, the Holiday Inn, The Chateau and all the Lake Street occupants between Marshall and Spring streets.

The one big catch, at least for the Holiday Inn, is the incessant blowing by trains crossing that intersection. Under federal law this is required unless railroad crossing arms are installed.

The Holiday Inn suffered mightily from the horn blowing during the evening, night and early morning hours. The resulting low occupancy rate cost the hotel its Holiday Inn “flagship”—Holiday Inn branding.

Once the crossing was closed the hotel was able to regain its Holiday Inn status, after the owners spent $5 million to remodel the facility. This will be lost, again, if the crossing is opened and the railroad horn blowing resumes.

Thus, the Holiday Inn wants a “quiet zone” crossing, which can only be achieved by the installation of crossing arms.

The estimated cost of cross arm installation are estimated to be about $700,000. The hotel has escrowed money to pay 50% of the costs. And the city of Shreveport has agreed to pay 50% of the cost of crossing arms.

Seemingly the Union Pacific Railroad should be on board with this project. But so far this has not been the case. To say that Union Pacific has been slowing down the “open back up” train is an understatement.

Maybe it’s the future cost of maintaining the crossing arms. Maybe its just the basic indifference of “make me” or “we were here first”, that being the railroad before Holiday Inn and Sci-port.

All this is not sitting well with Shreveport Council members Oliver Jenkins and Jeff Everson.

Jenkins introduced the original resolution to close Lake Street. Everson represents the downtown area and he has now introduced an ordinance to open the street back up. The council should vote in November on the ordinance.

Both Jenkins and Everson want this matter resolved before they leave office in mid December.

Everson’s ordinance authorizes the City Engineer and Director of Public Works to “begin the process” on January 1, 2019 to re-open vehicular access to Lake Street from Commerce Street to Sci-port. This process is to commence only if “significant progress” has not been made on this project.

In other words, the City is to push ahead on January 1 if the stand off with Union Pacific continues.

Unfortunately, the city is in a big no-win posture if the railroad refuses to cooperate and the street is opened without crossing arms. In that scenario, the horn blowing would resume and the Holiday Inn would again be faced with losing its flag.

Carl Hagans, the general manager of the Holiday Inn, made that point very clear at a recent Council meeting.

Hagan said that in 2017 the Holiday Inn paid over $162,000 in sales tax to the city of Shreveport. This year more than $275 grand in sales tax will be paid. The Holiday Inn also paid over $80,000 in ad valorem taxes on the facility and it’s contents in 2017.

Hagan estimates a drop in occupancy sales tax revenue of at least 33% if the Holiday Inn brand is lost.

Hagan also advised the Council that the hotel ownership group now owned the Best Western Chateau Hotel. They are in the process of spending $4 million for a total renovation and remodeling of this facility. This facility will re-open as a Holiday Inn Express sometime next year and should generate over $200,000 in sales tax.

Hagan said “the Holiday Inn at Shreveport Downtown and it’s Management Company are deeply invested in Shreveport. We are proud to be apart of the downtown area. We hope that we are able to continue a successful relationship with the city and it’s citizens. We are eager in reaching a solution to the Lake Street crossing and will continue to offer our support on the best possible outcome for all involved.”

Hopefully the Union Pacific Railroad will their cooperation with the city. The reopening of Lake street with crossing arms would be a plus to all concerned.

(This article was published in the 318 Forum on Tuesday, October 23, 2018)